Consultant Research Analyst, Applied political economy and quantitative analysis - remote flexi

Location:

Remote, any location globally with availability for calls across multiple time zones

Position Status:
Short-term consultancy

Duration:
Approximately 20-25 days (exact scope to be confirmed at inception)

Reports To:

Director, Global Crisis Analysis

Final date to receive applications: 18 March

Start Date:

Ideally week ending 20 March

Mercy Corps is a leading global organization powered by the belief that a better world is possible. In disaster, in hardship, in more than 40 countries around the world, we partner to put bold solutions into action — helping people triumph over adversity and build stronger communities from within. Now, and for the future.

The Crisis Analysis Team combines traditional research methods with powerful data science tools to help organizations navigate complex, high-risk environments impacted by climate change and conflict. Through trend monitoring, risk forecasting and deep-dive thematic analysis, we help ensure that donor investments create measurable, sustainable impact through coordinated and context-sensitive interventions – even in the most challenging operational environments. Our analysis is grounded in local contexts and conflicts, helping humanitarian, development, and peace building actors design solutions to better equip communities facing complex crises.

As a part of Mercy Corps, we combine independent analysis with direct programmatic experience, allowing us to provide actionable and targeted messages that strengthen sector-wide responses.

This consultancy is part of a project examining the global secondary economic impacts of the Iran war, specifically how conflict-generated shocks travel through commodity, financial, remittance and funding systems to affect population needs and humanitarian, development and peace building programming across the Middle East, South Asia and East Africa.

We are seeking an experienced analyst who combines applied political economy expertise with strong quantitative skills – specifically experience in price transmission modelling and/or econometric analysis – and who can translate complex economic findings into clear, operationally useful guidance for HDP practitioners.

The analyst will design the economic transmission pathway framework, build and run commodity price transmission models across three conflict scenarios, conduct structured key informant interviews (including with country office staff) and produce all written outputs – including country and sub-regional snapshots, a cross-cutting funding architecture analysis, and scenario-differentiated HDP recommendations. Compelling visualisations are a key component of this report; excellent GIS and data visualisation skills are a strong asset;

however, support can be provided for this aspect of the report for a strong candidate without these skills.

The exact scope, including the number and selection of case geographies, will be confirmed didates should be comfortable with a degree of flexibility at contracting stage.

While requiring a rigorous analytical framework, the report should present the findings in a clear and accessible way for a non-technical audience that includes donors, policymakers and operational HDP actors.

• Design the economic transmission pathway framework, mapping how US-Iran conflict shocks travel through key channels (oil supply and Hormuz disruption; food and commodity prices; remittances and labour markets; sanctions and financial systems; global HDP funding architecture) to HDP-relevant outcomes across the Middle East, South Asia and East Africa.
• Develop a scenario architecture describing three distinct political-economic states with qualitatively different HDP implications.
• Produce an inception note confirming the report outline, analytical approach, scenario definitions, case selection rationale and key informant engagement plan and planned visualisations.

• Design and run commodity price transmission models tracing the causal pathway from Hormuz disruption and oil price shocks…